Wednesday, March 02, 2005

Syria is doomed

Syria is doomed. From Oden Yinon in 1982 (his emphasis):

"The Western front, which on the surface appears more problematic, is in fact less complicated than the Eastern front, in which most of the events that make the headlines have been taking place recently. Lebanon's total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precedent for the entire Arab world including Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track. The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unique areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel's primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi'ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan. This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today."

From 'A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm' by Perle, Feith, the Wurmsers, etc. (their emphasis, but it might just as well have been mine):

"Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which American can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon, including by:

  • striking Syria's drug-money and counterfeiting infrastructure in Lebanon, all of which focuses on Razi Qanan.

  • paralleling Syria's behavior by establishing the precedent that Syrian territory is not immune to attacks emanating from Lebanon by Israeli proxy forces.

  • striking Syrian military targets in Lebanon, and should that prove insufficient, striking at select targets in Syria proper."

From 'Ending Syria's Occupation of Lebanon: The U.S. Role', a report of a group chaired by Daniel Pipes and Ziad Abdelnour, in which is buried one of the real reasons for the current events in Lebanon and Syria:

"The Middle East faces the looming problem of water shortages because of both the area's hot and arid climate and its huge population growth. Aside from Turkey (which controls the sources of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers) and Iraq (through which those two rivers flow), the only Middle Eastern country blessed with a substantial supply of fresh water is Lebanon. Its high mountain ranges capture and retain impressive amounts of snow and moisture for several months, much of which eventually feeds subterranean aquifers and artesian wells. The landscape is dotted with springs, small streams, rivulets, and several sizable rivers like the Litani. Between 80 and 90 percent of Lebanon's flowing water, though, is lost for that which is not absorbed into underground storage, ends up in the sea. Assuming all of Lebanon's future water needs can be met using half of this wasted amount, harnessing and distributing the remaining half to neighboring countries like Israel, Syria, and Jordan would be a significant step in alleviating the impending regional water shortage."

Needless to say, the only neighboring country they are talking about is Israel. The point of the current kerfuffle is to break Syria and Lebanon into small, non-threatening statelets, keep the Golan Heights and whatever new Syrian land can be captured, wipe out Hezbollah, take some of southern Lebanon, and steal Lebanese water. Given the current state of American politics, they will almost certainly get away with it. As James Wolcott has noticed, the old terrorist model will be rolled out again, with Hezbollah subbing for al Qaeda - watch for increasingly insane reporting from the disgusting American media on the great danger to the U. S. 'homeland' from Hezbollah, a group predominantly concerned with charitable, educational, and political actions in Lebanon - and Syria's support of Hezbollah replacing Saddam's mythical connections to al Qaeda. The fact that the current Syrian government has waged a bitter war against Islamist fundamentalists, and even offered to help the Americans by sharing their excellent intelligence on terrorist groups - an offer, needless to say, rudely rebuffed by the Americans - won't faze the American propagandists one little bit. Syria is doomed.