Friday, April 11, 2008

Power shift

From "A Paradigm Shift: How Hizbollah Won the War" by M. Shahid Alam (my emphasis in red):
"The Hizbollah offers Israel a new kind of asymmetric warfare: it combines low-tech guerilla tactics with sophisticated missile and communications technology. Understandably, the Israelis find these Hizbollah achievements hard to digest. What the world witnessed in Lebanon in July 2006 were events that contain the potential for shifting the balance of power in the Middle East. Earlier, the Iraqi insurgents had demonstrated that they can make an occupation – even by the world’s greatest power – very costly. Now, the Hizbollah had shown that a disciplined guerilla force, with access to advanced missiles, can repel the most powerful invading army.

It appears that the weapons gap that had opened up in recent decades between Western powers and the weaker, technologically backward nations may be closing. How rapidly this happens will depend on the willingness of Russia, China, North Korea, Iran – with other countries getting ready to join them – to make these weapons available to these movements. Alternatively, if these countries hesitate, the arms smugglers will step in to provide this service. Once anti-tank, anti-ship and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles can be bought on the world’s illicit arms markets as readily as AK-47s, this will begin to alter the fortunes of resistance movements battling great powers."

Israel is the greatest example of the old paradigm. It was created using old colonialist models, as an agent for Anglo-American imperialism, using old colonialist methods of domination. It can't adjust enough to meet the new realities. It will be interesting to see if expansionism is so integral a component of Zionism that it cannot be curtailed quickly enough to stop Israel from committing suicide. As I've been saying, if retaliatory rocket attacks make Israel an unacceptable place to live for highly mobile knowledge workers, Israel is finished.