Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Alternative fairly tale

"The Oil Coup"  This is likely completely backwards.  Kerry probably went to see King Abdullah to try to talk him out of this crazy scheme, part of the ongoing manic-depressive influence of Prince Bandar, but the Saudis, furious with the Americans over the failure to remove Assad and the negotiations with Iran, want to pressure the Americans to follow a more Zionist line.  Noticing this is noticing American Empire vulnerability, so we can't go there.  Of course, we could even travel a stage higher in questioning the idea that the Saudis, as we're constantly told the 'swing producer' (despite the fact that numerous new sources of hydrocarbons have come on line in the last 20 years), actually have that much power at all.  The collapse of oil prices is actually due to a collapse in world demand for oil caused by the complete collapse of the world economy caused by the predations of the 1% and neoliberalism, but we're really not supposed to notice this, so we need an alternative fairy tale.

"Blowback from Oil Price War: Sovereign Wealth Funds Selling Investments"  Note the likelihood that American shale oil producers are lying to their lenders by lowering their claimed break-even costs, lying which has now made it into academic analysis and news reports.  Of course, the lenders would be destroyed by the truth (the truth would no doubt trigger automatic loan defaults of loans with worthless collateral), and need to be bailed out by the American government, so they play along.

"The Impact of Falling Oil On The U.S. Economy – John Mauldin"  Note what will happen to the American employment situation and GDP without the hydrocarbon boom.

Of course, if the fall in oil prices is not caused by the Saudis, but by a long-term collapse in demand caused by a world recession, there is no easy step that can be taken to correct it.
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