Thursday, July 11, 2019

Emboldened Sultan

"Sultan shines in the court of the Dragon King" (Escobar) (the big deal is Erdoğan effectively trading Turkish irredentism for being admitted into the China camp, which must have been a difficult choice for him to make):
"In conjunction with his success at the court of the Dragon King, Erdogan now feels emboldened enough to offer his services as mediator between Tehran and the Trump administration – picking up on a suggestion he made to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the G20.

Erdogan would not have made that offer if it had not been discussed previously with Russia and China – which, crucially, are member signatories of the Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA).

It’s easy to see how Russia and China should consider Turkey the perfect mediator: a neighbor of Iran, the proverbial bridge between East and West, and a NATO member. Turkey is certainly much more representative than the EU-3 (France, UK, Germany).

Trump seems to want – or at least gives the impression of imposing – a JCPOA 2.0, without an Obama signature. The Russia-China partnership could easily call his bluff, after clearing it with Tehran, by offering a new negotiating table including Turkey. Even if the ineffective – in every sense – EU-3 remained, there would be real counterbalance in the form of Russia, China and Turkey.

Out of all these important moves in the geopolitical chessboard, one motivation stands out among top players: Eurasian integration cannot significantly progress without challenging the Trumpian sanction obsession."
Erdoğan could negotiate a sanction-less deal with Iran, essentially exactly the same as the old deal with some meaningless changes to sell it as new, sidestepping the embarrassing and useless Eurotrash, and then offer it to Trump to sign on to.  Trump has just demonstrated at the G20 and NK that he can play gracious - not really gracious, but gracious by his standards, and in his own mind - if it makes him look Presidential (prepping for the election), so he could be allowed to sweep in and claim the 'new' deal as his yuge MAGA improvement over the awful Barry deal.  The really yuge problem, that Iran has no good reason to trust the Assholians - nobody has the slightest reason to trust them - could be finessed by having China and Russia and Turkey secretly backstop the agreement by offering private side-deal assurances of a solid predetermined program of sanction-busting should the Assholian politicians take the shekels and renege, again.  Everybody - except the Khazars (and even they avoid having to face Hezbollah's rockets) - wins.  The problem may come down to the new Epstein blackmail caper that is being pointed at Trump (the Clintonistas are gunning for this, while attempting to protect 'our fave', quite the maneuver!).
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