Tuesday, February 14, 2006

The geography of Kurdistan

The Kurdistan pipeline thesis is powerful as it is based on geography. We know the Kurds are trying to include the Kirkuk oil fields in Kurdistan. We know that Kurdistan is landlocked. We know that the oilfields are useless without a way of moving the oil to a port. We know that the north is blocked by Turkey, the east by Iran, and the south by the rest of Iraq (which won't be a friend if the Kurds abscond with the Kirkuk oil fields). The only way out is west, through two possible routes. The southern one is through Jordan to Israel, but moving oil through Israel isn't politically possible now. That leaves the route through Syria to Lebanon. For that route to work, the Kurds need regime change in Syria. This will have the added advantage of breaking off the east part of Syria to form part of Greater Kurdistan. The Kurds are being manipulated by Israel and the United States through the use of the carrot of Greater Kurdistan. This isn't going to end well for the Kurds.