Sunday, February 11, 2007

Freezing in the dark

Sometimes people are told that they have an incurable disease, and find it preferable to kill themselves immediately rather than live with the uncertainty of what will happen to them.  The Israeli right seems to have fallen into this trap, victims of believing their own ridiculous propaganda regarding the new Holocaust.  This despite the fact that the Palestinians, and Muslims in the Middle East generally, are content with the existence of Israel, provided it stays within the 1967 borders.  Fortunately, not everybody in Israel is insane.  As I have mentioned before, Israel can’t afford to make any mistakes, and an attack on Iran, sure to fail in its military objectives, would so accelerate the demographic problem that the end of Israel would become a self-fulfilling prophesy.  It would be ironic if right-wing lies about Iranian intentions led to an Israeli attack which in turn led to the drawn-out, but inevitable, destruction of Israel.

Meanwhile, the Iranians – better diplomats than they are given credit for – are finally sticking it to the Europeans. From an article by M K Bhadrakumar:

“. . . Tehran has signaled to European capitals that they may have to pay a heavy price for any further identification with the US policy toward Iran. The fact that the Iranian proposal on the ‘gas OPEC’ was made by spiritual leader Khamenei should leave Western capitals in no doubt that Tehran is not scoring a propaganda point. They must now rethink before imposing unilateral sanctions on Iran.

Iran is the ‘last frontier’ for European countries seeking to access natural gas from the Middle East. By 2015-20, Europe will face serious gas shortages, even if Russia augments its supplies via the Northern European pipeline. Tehran knows it is a ‘special case’ for European countries. Tehran was hoping all along that it could normalize relations with the European Union, and that it would receive serious economic and political carte blanche.

Khamenei's warning has registered. In an interview with The Financial Times, French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin said on Tuesday that the international community (read the United States) is ‘lacking imagination’ on Iran. ‘We must show Iran that firstly it has more to lose than gain from an enrichment program that worries the international community, but also that if Iran accepts to respect its international obligations, it has much more to gain than lose,’ he argued.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, ‘Talks on the matter are still possible.’ A meeting between Merkel and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, on the sidelines of a Munich security conference this weekend is probable in an attempt to break the impasse over the nuclear issue. Germany holds the EU presidency and heads the Group of Eight.”

I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for European support for sanctions against Iran.

Europeans have a generally moral attitude towards the Middle East, but their leaders, who don’t even have the Lobby to worry about, continue to take the most immoral position possible with respect to the Palestinians (the ‘diet plan’), and toy with Iran.  European leaders have a choice:  they can rely entirely for their future energy on the erratic and politically unreliable Russians (as evidenced by recent situations where the European gas supply was almost shut off), or they can leave the option open of using Iranian gas.  Iran doesn’t have to sell to Europe:  plans are well under way to send gas to India, and even to China.  If Europe continues to play footsie with the USraeli threats against yet another sovereign and unthreatening country, Iran has all the reason in the world to play the gas card.  Iran and Russia can divide the gas situation up to give each country an effective supply monopoly, causing both much higher prices and, in Europe, constant supply uncertainty.  Even if Iranian gas eventually makes it to Europe, now is the time to ensure full Iranian cooperation.   If European leaders don’t heed the warnings, and gain Iranian enmity by continuing to tacitly support Zionist aggression, Europeans should start hanging them from the lampposts.

The coming Russian-Iranian-Indian-Pakistani-Chinese gas understanding, largely managed by Gazprom, is yet more proof, if any were needed, that the ‘experts’ are completely out to lunch concerning supposed Bush Administration plans to dominate world hydrocarbon supply.  The Bush Administration simply isn’t that motivated, or that competent.  I think most errors in analyzing the state of America are based on the idea that it is a stable Empire, or one ascending, instead of what it really is, one in steep decline; the same mistake leads to underestimating the Lobby (with people forgetting that Rasputin had a lot to do with running a rapidly-declining Russia for a while).  An American attack against Iran won’t happen, but even if it did, it would have no long-term effect on Iranian energy supply plans, except to confirm the wisdom of building as much power as possible by using its control of where the energy goes.

Are Europeans going to continue to tolerate the immoral Zionist positions of their leadership?  Are they ready for a future of freezing in the dark?  The Russians are signaling that the aimless American aggression has to stop.  Europe’s future is with Russia-Iran; there is no future with the collapsing USrael.