Friday, July 29, 2022

Offline for foreseeable future

I'm offline until they send a technician out, and if I happen to miss the call telling me the time, I lose the technician (they are really bossy for something that is their fault!).  I think I may need a new internet provider.

I had this in the chamber

"How Much Does the United States Military Cost American Taxpayers?" (Viable Opposition): 

"It is also important to note that around half of the Pentagon's budget goes directly into the pockets of the defense industry.  Over the last 20 years, the defense industry took in more than $7.2 trillion in taxpayer-funded purchases compared to only $4.7 trillion in the 20 years before that which, as you may recall, included the peak years of the Cold War."

"West prepares to plunder post-war Ukraine with neoliberal shock therapy: privatization, deregulation, slashing worker protections" (Kallio/Norton).  The real war on Ukraine starts the day after the Russian SMO is ended.

Life in the third world

Sorry but I'll be off until they fix my internet (they say '2 to 4 hours').

Their poison seeps out of every institution in society

"Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 156". 

"A Deep Dive Chat With Canncon’s Brian Lupo and Q" (Johnson).  This would be a good primer for normies who don't know what is going on.  It eventually gets into a discussion of the new woke ideas, which seems to be on a lot of American minds.

"How The Tables Have Turned." (Martyanov).  "A Panicking Biden Administration Seeks Talks With Russia" (Moon of Alabama).

Trading an American spy for Bout has a certain logic from the American side (although that is the real deal, they will woke-spin it as saving Griner from the evil commies who snatched her up for no reason).  The Americans have always treated Bout as a Russian state employee.  The Russians probably don't see him that way, and thus the deal may not make any sense from the Russian perspective.  I assume Griner was caught because she is always carrying drugs but as an elite athlete was always waived through customs control, but the sanctions war against Russia prompted Russia to start enforcing its laws against people from the West.

"Ukraine War Day #156: Turkish Football Fans Cheer For Putin" (yalensis).

"[ Donetsk Front ] Ukr HIMARS strike on "Mariupol" POW barracks in Olenivka (SW of Donetsk City)" (Defense Politics Asia).  Ukraine is attempting to kill its own soldiers now held as POWs to keep them off the media with embarrassing stories (or even to deter Ukrainian soldiers from surrendering, or to produce a narrative that Russia murders POWs!).

"Why Zelenskyy & wife appear on Vogue and Pier Morgan? Its a North Korea thing...." (Defense Politics Asia: IRL).

"Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov : Member countries of the African Union".

"Why the Soviet Bridge in Kherson Survived American Missile Attacks" (Stalker/Zone).  Soviet-era bridges were built to standards in anticipation of possible use during a war.

More on how the woke are changing American politics, but not as they intended:  "MSNBC: There’s a Terrifying Reason Republicans Christian Nationalism Brand Is So Strong" ('Hunter Wallace'):

"I guess things are so bad now living as we do in a country where Christianity is no longer the dominant culture, where Christian norms and morals are under relentless attack by secular elites who promote Satanic fads like gay marriage and “trans,” where we all live under a homogeneous Jewish, liberal, modernist or atheist elite in outlook and their poison seeps out of every institution in society that White evangelicals are finally beginning to reconsider their attachment to liberalism.

Better late than never. Every man has his limit. I think the spread of “trans” was a key turning point for White evangelicals and their relationship to classical liberalism."

Thursday, July 28, 2022

People to call

"Roundtable #6: Giuliano, Hinkle, Reed" (Lira).

The current state of political manipulation:  "BEWARE: Disinfo Campaign Launched to Discredit Key Questions Concerning Ray Epps and January 6th" (revolver).  Given Twitter, you can see how easy it is to send people off on wild tangents.

"Did You Ever Know That You’re My Hero, And You are the Wind Beneath My Wings?" (Anglin).

The exact same thing that the US wanted to do to Russia using Ukraine:

"Lavrov is on Blinken’s list of people to call" (Bhadrakumar). 

"Trump Defends Saudi Arabia From 9/11 Families in Shocking Comments: ‘Nobody’s Gotten to the Bottom of 9/11’" (Meyer).

A thread:

"Ukraine is Losing the War, and So is Europe" (Silva-Valladares) (my emphasis in red):

"At the heart of Europe’s current troubles is its inability to balance its economic and security interests with enough autonomy to be able to look after its own interests. European ambiguity is not new, it has roots in the post-World War II architecture and the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in relation to Ukraine it manifested in its ineptitude to enforce the Minsk agreements that clearly offered a Russo-Ukrainian peace path but were unable to be enforced by France and Germany due to relentless US and Ukrainian pressure.

It seems that only significant political alterations in the European countries that matter -namely France, Germany and Italy- will allow a meaningful change of course from the current path of confrontation with Russia and ultimately economic self-destruction. Otherwise, any political initiative towards solving the war will be left in the hands of Russia and the United States and, if that is the case, any lasting agreement will not have European interests at heart. It would be tragic that a core European problem like the Ukraine war is finally solved through the dealings of an Euro-Asian and an American power."

Zelensky scolds America

"Timeline: Week 22 of Russia’s war in Ukraine" (Psaropoulos).

"Russian Ops in Ukraine (July 28, 2022) - Ukraine's "Kherson Offensive," Battle in the Donbass" (The New Atlas).

"Russia Breakthrough Ukraine Donetsk Fortifications, MSM Focus on Kherson, US Navy Carrier to Taiwan" (Mercouris).

"Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 28.07.2022" (Military Summary).

"Ukraine War Update [28 July]- Ukrainians control Pasika? (Izyum Front) and Bilohirka (Kherson Front)" (Military Lab.).

"Germany selling 100 x PzH2000 tracked artillery to Ukraine (that may never see the battlefield)~!!!" (Defense Politics Asia: IRL).  This sounds like a German military procurement scam.  The German government will no doubt eventually take delivery of the tanks, and the German government will pay for them.

"Zelensky SCOLDS AMERICA Over Ukraine Support" (Hinkle).

"The Woke Empire Has No Voting Base" (Dreizin).

"No Wonder It Is 7%" (Martyanov).

Lolling around feeling forlorn

"You Know It Is Getting Bad for Ukraine When PBS Disputes the Propaganda" (Johnson).  It is always confusing when some truth leaks out from the (((media))).  Was it a mistake?  A small revolutionary act?  Some kind of trick or manipulation?

"U.S SENATORS & CITIZENS Added To Ukrainian 'BLACKLIST' - Inside Russia Report" (iEarlGrey).   Very distinguished list.

"US Should Not Fund Ukrainian ‘Blacklist’" (Ritter).

"UK sanctions UK citizen. Blinken begs Lavrov, offers swap. Medvedev's two maps. Update 1" (Christoforou). 

"Let's talk about the news (Live)" (The Duran).

"Scott Ritter & Judge Napolitano Peace And Freedom Rally".  Two short barnburner speeches.

"Ukraine/Russia latest Col. Macgregor" (Napolitano interview of MacGregor).

Hmm:  "Oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, under FBI probe, stripped of Ukraine citizenship" (Sallah/Murray/Kozyreva).  This could be a stunt.  We have no way of confirming this actually happened.  On the other hand, it may be that Ze is being forced by his NATO bodyguards to give up any other sources of protection.  I can't see Ze doing this voluntarily, as Kolomoisky is 100% responsible for Ze's wealth and position, as well as for keeping the Nazis around him, who are thugs hired by Kolomoisky, in line.  Kolomoisky's legal problems may have prevented Kolomoisky from being as valuable a friend as he has been.

"‘If You’re On That List, You’re Dead’: UK Journo Speaks Out After Being Placed On Ukrainian Hit List" (Reed).

"PATRICK LAWRENCE: 21st Century Order".  An analysis of various examples of American official and semi-official reaction to the multipolar world.  Hearkening back to the defining moment in Anchorage:

"What happened in Anchorage, what made it so key a moment, is that the Chinese simply gave up trying to work with the Americans: You can’t get any sense out of them, Beijing concluded. This, parenthetically, is exactly what the Russians concluded 11 months later when they intervened in Ukraine.

The construction of infrastructure to serve a 21st century world order has been under way for some time. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a big part of it. Then you have bilateral relations improving here and there: China’s recent economic agreements with Cuba, China’s with Iran, Iran’s with Venezuela, China’s with Venezuela, India’s with Russia, and so on. These multiply as we speak.

All these desperate outcasts. They seem to be everywhere, lolling around feeling forlorn.

The Russia–Iran development is another piece of this but seems to me singularly important. It signals that sanctions, which do not work in any case, will eventually fail completely and that Iran is more than gradually coming in from the cold."

Not Calm Hearts

"Andrei Martyanov: Going “tactical” and “realist”". 

"Proxy War in Ukraine: How We Got to Where We Are Today" (McGovern).

"Interview With Politwera and Andrei Martyanov" (Johnson).  Odd interview where the Russian moderator asks questions in Russian, Martyanov translates to English, Johnson answers in English, Martyanov translates to Russian, and so on.  It means either English or Russian speakers can follow it.  Interesting it was Bill Clinton - who, you will remember, was installed by the (((donors))) when George H. W. Bush became an Israel skeptic - who set us on this path by ensuring Russia was kept out of European integration (in case you think those days are over, note the recent millions poured into Democrat primaries by AIPAC).  Also, the thesis is advanced by Johnson that the sexual revolutionaries in the US and the West generally may be behind the seemingly insane hatred leveled against traditionalist Russia.  We're facing World War Troon.  

"NATO arsonist-in-chief Jens Stoltenberg wants the Western public to pay for a Ukrainian fire he helped ignite" (Ritter). 

"‘Today Asia feels it can regain its civilizational weight lost for 500 years’: Lebanese academic" (interview of Matar).  While many think Russia is losing the PR war, there is no doubt that the multi-polarity meme is taking off across the world.

"The Gang That Can’t Shoot Straight: Western Leaders Bungle Russia Gas Supply, Barmy Oil Price Cap, and Appear Unable Even to Line Up Meetings" (Smith).  Europe allowing Ukraine to unilaterally cut off a huge amount of gas to Europe without complaint is one of the weirdest parts of this conflict.  Another weird thing is that Gazprom dutifully pays its gas transit fees to Ukraine every month.

"Taibbi: The "Not Calm Hearts" In Kharkiv, Ukraine".  The short documentary is worth watching.  Note all the YouTube problems.

"Farmers slam Trudeau over rising fertilizer costs" (Bexte).

Antlers for visitors

"Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 155". 

"Ukraine War Frontline Update: Donetsk - Marinka - Peski" (Lancaster).

"CrossTalk | Kiev is losing" (Lavelle with McGovern, Nixon and Bruno).  I think Bruno is right that Nuland had this planned in 2016 until Clinton lost (Russia would not have been ready for it in 2017).  Nixon is right that the Americans are going to think this war was a big success if they ruin Europe as a competitor.

"Left in the Dark: The Families Struggling to Survive Fuel Poverty" (Cook).  Always remember, the Euro-trash are not indifferent to the suffering of Europeans, they get off on it.  People, by living, are destroying the planet, and need to be punished.

I'm starting to think that the only punishment that fits the crimes of Western 'leaders', not sufficient for the magnitude of the crimes, but as close as we can get, is public drawing and quartering.

"Ukraine War Day #155: Naftogaz Defaults" (yalensis):

"For those not in the know, Naftogaz is run by people from Petro Poroshenko’s circle, and those guys don’t get along at all with Zelensky’s people, which includes Shmygal. (Two different, competing sets of oligarchs.) Shmygal is trying to maneuver this situation so that he can remove the top management of Naftogaz and he doesn’t care if he has to drive the company to bankruptcy to accomplish that. (Scorched earth policy.) Secondly, Naftogaz management are not too cut up about it themselves, they don’t care if they can continue to acquire loans and never have to pay them back (after declaring bankruptcy). There is always Russia to blame."


"In her piece, Olga Samofalova sees a possible silver lining: The Ukraine has an actual opportunity here to emerge as completely self-sufficient when it comes to gas. Much of this analysis also comes from Yushkov. Who points out that Ukraine is smaller now and doesn’t have to worry about keeping the “lost territories” warm over the winter. Ukraine doesn’t get all its gas from Russia either, it actually has its own gas, believe it or not, at a level of 20 billion cubic meters per year. This gas is drilled in the center and Western part of the country, which is still under Kiev. In earlier years consumption would exceed production by around 10 billion cubic meters annually, and Ukraine would have to somehow make up the deficit. But this year, the 20 bil might be just enough. Keeping into account, however, that you can’t wildly consume all the gas, a certain level needs to remain in the underground reservoirs, to keep the pressure up, that’s called “technical gas”. Nonetheless, self-sufficiency in a truncated Ukraine is still a possibility, except for one fly in the ointment: The greed of the suppliers. Who may decide it is more profitable for them to sell their gas to a freezing Europe, than to keep their own citizens warm and cozy." 

"Ukraine Government Asks US to Provide ‘Gas Lend-Lease’" (DeCamp).  It will be hilarious if the Ukrainians end up gas secure for the winter while the Europeans freeze in the dark.

The galaxy-brain

The heroes of the West, the people for whom Europe has decided to self-immolate, are cartoon-level evil villains: 

Wednesday, July 27, 2022


"EU symbolic 15% gas rationing. Lavrov, "get rid of regime." Elensky Vogue photo shoot. Update 1" (Christoforou).

"Ukraine Defences Collapsing in Donetsk, Ukraine Again Hits Kherson Bridges, EU Running Out of Gas" (Mercouris).

"EU begins to crack as Germany braces for an energy disaster" (The Duran).

"Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 27.07.2022" (Military Summary).

"[ LITHUANIA-RUSSIA ] The episode where Lithuania started hating everyone... Kaliningrad get cements" (Defense Politics Asia).

"Boris Johnson To Become NATO Secretary General. Ukraine BEGS U.S for Gas Under LEND LEASE" (iEarlGrey).

"Ukraine War Update [27 July] - Pokrovske (Bakhmut Front) & Andriivka (Kherson Front) in question" (Military Lab.).

"Ukraine Army Military Positions With Chechen Soldiers" (Lancaster).

"BREAKING NEWS! More Western WMD bioweapon evidence revealed in Ukraine. War crime trials a certainty" (Brown).

"2022.07.27 The Persecution of Alina Lipp and Graham Phillips" (Lira).  Evidence of a very serious lack of self-confidence in German and British politicians.

Colonel Cassad via Niqnaq.

"Israel fears a nightmare scenario as the crisis with Russia escalates" (Abu Amer):

"Israelis tend to agree that they do not want the current tension with Moscow to become irreversible to the point that Russia would ban Israel’s air force jets from using Syrian airspace; that would be a nightmare scenario for Tel Aviv."

"Russia Fired On Israeli Jets Over Syria In "One-Off": Israel's Defense Chief" (Durden). 

"Russia’s Vostok 2022 has big messages" (Bhadrakumar).

"Ukraine War Day #154: Ukrainians Head South" (yalensis).  Voting with their feet.

"Lavrov denigrates West’s stance towards Africa on Ethiopia visit".

The DragonBear

At least the details and timing of the Sri Lanka collapse are tied directly into the sanctions against Russia, and Russian suspicion of Nuland's machinations:  "Sri Lanka’s Arrest of Aeroflot Plane Was the Straw that Broke President Rajapaksa’s Back" (Helmer).

"Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 154".

"Is the INSTC Russia’s new economic escape route?" (Kasturi).

Cruel dictator Blackface Trudeau's political prisoner Tamara Lich - held on the charge that she failed to 'respect my authoritah' - finally got a real judge who asked real questions of the Crown, and got bail:  "Convoy organizer Tamara Lich again granted bail".  When they get to trial, these political prisoners are going to get 'time served' as they have already been incarcerated far too long for the picayune charges they face, charges which are themselves utterly bogus and an embarrassment to the Canadian judicial system.

"Japan Faces Catastrophic Consequences of its anti-Russian Sanctions".  Note the series of American gas 'accidents'!  Japan continues to be a tremendous country whose politicians are all morons.

"Arm Ukraine Now: California, the UK, Texas, Italy, and Japan Need You" (Butler).  The US has just:
  1. vastly increased the wealth of the MIC and the US energy industry;
  2. brought Europe permanently under its wing as a collection of pure vassal states without any agency whatsoever, and prevented it from joining the obvious Russia-China axis; and
  3. gone a long way to slowly dragging Russia further and further into Ukraine (largely by grossly undersupplying Ukraine with weapons, and making bad military decisions on behalf of Ukraine), leading to the desired 'occupation', and is already setting up the 'People's Resistance' in Ukraine through the CIA, which they intend to lead to regime change in Russia.
Why are guys like Martyanov crowing about how badly the US is doing?


"Putin Speaks. Marmalade is marmalade, gloves are gloves and this is Putin speaking." (Brown).  

"Were Years of NATO Training Effective?" (HistoryLegends).

"TG 817: The Gaggle Talks to Scott Ritter" (The Gaggle with Peter and George).

"Poland & Czech Republic suffer labour shortage due to Ukrainian workers returning to go fight war..." (Defense Politics Asia: IRL).

"Iranian Drones May Support the Russian Advance in Ukraine" and "Political West Took $12 Billion in Gold From Ukraine Since February" and "Another Missile Attack on Ukrainian Forces in Konstantinovka Leaves Dozens of Foreigners Killed" (South Front).

"UK Allegedly Trained Ukrainian Troops to Retake Snake Island" (Leiroz). [this link may no longer work]

"Schroeder Goes To Moscow And Other Items." and "Take a Note." (Martyanov).

"Hungary’s Stance on Sanctions Reveal Divisions Within Europe" (ARAujo).

"Dinosaurs of the Deep Blue Sea" (Schryver).  They are floating portable Pearl Harbors, suitable only to be set in a threatening position, be taken out by the Chinese, and then be the casus belli for a major war.

"Russia’s New Gas Deals With Iran Are A Threat To The West" (Watkins).

"Russia issues rebuke to Israel".

"Russia Will Now Help Ukrainians "Get Rid Of Regime," Lavrov Says" (Durden).

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

30-year-old punk

"Gazprom second turbine needs repair, Germany Stage 3 panic. Elensky's blacklist. $35 Peson. Update 1" (Christoforou). 

"Russian Breakthrough in Donetsk, August Decisive Month in War, Russia Dials Down Gas Flow to Europe" (Mercouris).  The sanctions-caused ultra-recession.

"Poland's Position as the Next "Ukraine"" (The New Atlas).

"TG 815: Josep Borrell Reports Back on His Impressions of the G-20 Meeting" (The Gaggle with Peter and George).

"Roundtable #5: Johnson, McGovern, Postol" (Lira).  Highest-level panel.  We should see Postol on more of these panels.  See 2:08:50 McGovern question and Postol answer.  There was lots on non-proliferation at the beginning, from people who were there.

"Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 26.07.2022" (Military Summary).

"[ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 151-152 (24-25/7) Summary - Russian forces capture Vuhlehirska PP & Pokrovske" (Defense Politics Asia).

"Ukraine War Update [26 July] - Russians capture Vuhlehirska TPP, Pokrovkse, Novoluhanske & Berestove" (Military Lab.).

What?!:  "British Journalist Graham Phillips Added To UK SANCTIONS LIST! - Inside Russia Report" (iEarlGrey).

"Exclusions And Sanctions Help 'Enemies' To Build Their Own Capabilities" (Moon of Alabama).

Circle game

"‘The Russians have nothing equivalent’: How HIMARS help Ukraine" (Psaropoulos).  Cha-ching!  I'm sure the Russians can find something 'equivalent' if they dig down through their museums of ancient obsolete military equipment.  This is just pure corruption (kick-backs to the 'leaders' involved).  If Russia rolls into the Baltics, it will not be with the kid gloves being used on Ukraine.

"The Trudeau Government and Canada's Farmers - Reducing the Use of Fertilizers" (Viable Opposition):

"Revenue losses to Canadian farmers for these three crops alone will total $48.36 billion between 2023 and 2030. According to the CEO of Fertilizer Canada, Karen Proud, the federal government unilaterally made the decision on the level of cuts without consulting either provincial governments or the agricultural sector and other key stakeholders. This should come as no surprise given that the Trudeau Liberals have a history of being know it alls when it comes to just about every issue.

Fertilizer Canada has stated that farmers do not have to choose between the environment and the economy. The group's 4R Nutrient Stewardship program is the foundation for a reduction in farm emission reductions and that farmers should not have to rely on the federal government to tell them how to use fertilizers properly. Under the 4R program, farmers will follow the following four principles:

The 4R protocol results in a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 35 percent which , if implanted across Western Canada, would reduce annual CO2e emissions of 2 to 3 megatons per year.

Here is a graphic showing how the 30 percent rate reduction in the use of fertilizers will compare to the implementation of the 4R protocol:

It is estimated that a 30 percent absolute emission reduction for a farmer with 1000 acres of canola and 1000 acres of wheat will suffer a profit loss of between $38,000 and $40,500 annually.

One might think that the Trudeau government would have taken the opportunity to address this issue at the annual meeting of Federal-Provincial-Territorial ministers of agriculture during their three day meeting in Saskatchewan held in July 2022 but such was not the case with the issue not even appearing on the agenda."

"Hundreds of fresh graves in only one of the cemeteries in the Dnepropetrovsk region." (Intel Slava Z).

After the complete collapse of the West, the survivors should gather what resources they have left and set up bounties for the outlaw billionaires, their enablers, and the 'leaders' who have been so foolish/corrupt.

The original anti-vaxxers:  "First US case of polio in nearly a decade is an Orthodox Jewish man" (Henry).

From Naked Capitalism, after linking to the above tweet (yeah, they also just revealed that the very expensive new Alzheimer's drugs don't work, a fact which I believe has been generally known to doctors for some time):

"From IM Doc:

I was in the doctors lounge this evening with two other docs.

Tucker came on. A 20 minute monologue about Big Pharma and the corruption Thereof. I simply could not believe what I was seeing.

He took 20 minutes and decimated opiates, SSRIs, COVID vaccines, Fauci, Birx, and the Biogen Alzheimer’s drug.

If you want an idea what I am barraged with daily even by the MSNBC crowd, look no further. I hear these same issues from patients all day long.

Tucker clearly has his problems but he also clearly has balls of steel. The execs at Fox with Big Pharma providing about half their revenue must clearly know the gig is up or they would not be allowing this on TV.

People are getting more enraged by the day. It is clips like this that make me certain the day of reckoning is coming soon.

Both the other docs in the lounge tonight, MSNBC watchers, agreed with me that there is not a thing in this monologue to be quibbled about.

Since the mid 2000s, right when Tom Cruise did his SSRI interview with Lauer – Tucker played part of it – the original Lilly Pfizer papers have been a standard the world over on how data is manipulated and how relative risk is abused. I have used them as examples of inappropriate data manipulation in classes for more than a decade. Most physicians with a questioning mind have known these drugs were a problem for years. And this is the first time I have ever heard this discussed on national TV in my life.

The Birx clip he features “I knew they were not going to be effective stopping the spread of the virus” was played today in a conference. Immediately followed by the Fauci, Walensky, Biden, and Maddow clips detailing that the vaxxes were a dead end, that you would never catch it, etc.

The ID fellow presenter, whose hospital and clinics are now being overrun with vaxxed and boosted COVID patients, after the above clips were played, in a dull monotone said, “One needs to ask WHAT exactly did these people know and more importantly WHEN did they know it?”

I could scarcely believe it. That kind of talk would have garnered intense guffaws and probably a trip to the chairman’s office just a few weeks ago. Now silent resignation.

The Fauci clip where he is asked about menstrual problems and states “we are going to study it….”. An epidemiologist commented “Seriously, you forced this upon millions of young women, and ONLY now we are going to study it? Did anyone have a hint this was a problem before the mandates? Knowing Pfizer’s history, my gut tells me they knew all too well.”

And yet another zinger from a retired ID professor – “If they knowingly released a non-sterilizing vaccine into an acute coronavirus pandemic and forced millions to take it, that may be the greatest act of medical malpractice in the history of this whole world.”

I am slowly seeing the return of “science” in my profession. Tough questions are being asked. Finally.

What do I feel tonight ….. the sun is shining, the scales are falling out of the eyes…and we are on the Road to Damascus. This may take quite a bit longer than you would expect, but I am fairly sure this is going to get really interesting" 

'Stress or poor diet' (see also, Adult Sudden Death Syndrome):

"The Normalization of The New Normal Reich" (Hopkins).

Links to the whole concert:

An American demand

"Daily attacks on civilian areas continue in Russia Ukraine War" (Lancaster).

"Ukraine counteroffensive, this might be Zelensky's last stand" (The Duran).

"llusions of Superiority. What’s Next?" (Crooke):

"For some time now, Moscow has been putting into place a security architecture for West Asia. The BRICS and the SCO are gaining potential heft; Lavrov’s Team has been working the Gulf hard; and the Tehran Summit took this wider project a huge step forward.

Soon, it seems, we may expect Moscow to have its ‘ducks all lined-up’ – so as to present Tel Aviv with a proposal: Let us say Moscow puts forward a Mid-East ‘Minsk Accord’, and tells Israel that this Accord represents the only path to avoid a multi-front war with Iran. Will it work? Can Israel transition? That is problematic. Netanyahu has pushed Israel towards a far right ideological stance. Israel now stands on the wrong side of the Middle East paradigm."


"As for Europe, Moscow’s ‘gas retribution’ for sanctions imposed effectively is prompting the EU to ‘self-harm’, through mimicking the same economic playbook vis à vis Russian gas supplies, as Germany employed vis à vis its cheap coal deposits. This event occurred after France, in 1923, seized the Ruhr (as penalty for defaulting on Reparations). Located in the country’s west, the Ruhr region was Germany’s industrial heartland, home of most of its coal and steel production. Germany (facing large Reparation payments), was determined both to subsidise its industrial base, and to finance its dismembered weapons supply lines in order to re-arm – yet facing a hijacked cheap energy supply, the Weimar government took to printing money. What Germany ‘got’ was hyperinflation and broken supply lines, compounding the inflation. Brussels seems ready to follow this same playbook.

What is extraordinary here is that Europe took this lacuna on itself, in an excess of enthusiasm for ‘saving Ukraine’. Public protest in Europe has begun, and likely will build further. In light of the huge pendulum swing by Europe from adherence to some semblance of strategic autonomy – only to abandon itself to Washington and NATO’s sway – the pendulum will likely swing back, as the recession and price-spikes bite.

The European Deep State will endeavour to hold the line, but a fault line will open up in Europe between those states who dare not let go of ‘Uncle Sam’ (such as Poland), and those determined to move away and to engage with Russia. These tensions may well fracture the EU." 

"The All-American Lie Factory" (Giraldi).  F-6.

"Sitrep Operation Z: collapses and progress" (Saker Staff).

"Black Sea and three musketeers" (Bhadrakumar). 

"With eye on the CIA, Moscow cracks the whip at Israel" (Bhadrakumar):

"Call it a trapeze or balancing or double-crossing act, but Moscow cannot afford to ignore the ground realities, given the nexus between the US and Israeli intelligence. Succinctly put, the possibility exists that the Jewish Agency operatives in Russia have had covert liaison with the US intelligence.

From February-March, Moscow began uprooting all vestiges of US intelligence from Russian soil, including Carnegie’s Moscow Centre. It is entirely conceivable that the CIA had a “back-up” plan and “sleeper cells” in Russia handled through associates. The fact remains that the Jewish Agency also has an office in Kiev and Israeli military runs a hospital for treating wounded Ukrainian soldiers. Of course, Ukraine’s spy agency is also very active. All things taken together, the Russian intelligence possibly caught up with the nexus."

"Ukraine War Day #152: Wither [continued]" and "Ukraine War Day #153: Wither [concluded]" (yalensis).  Israel has done a surprisingly terrible job of balancing its relations with the US and Russia, no doubt because the (((donors))) insist on strict following of the (((neocon))) conspiracy plans involving regime change in Russia.  As much as I despise Bibi, there is no doubt he would have done a much better job at dealing with Russia.

"Ambassador reveals details of landmark Putin-Khamenei meeting":

"In an interview with the website of Khamenei’s office, the Iranian Ambassador (to Moscow) revealed details of the meeting between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ali Khamenei, saying, “The Russian President informed the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei, during their meeting in Tehran, that several European leaders had said when they met with him that they totally oppose NATO expansion eastward and (in particular) towards Russia. However, when they (European leaders) were questioned about the reason behind this expansion, they answered that it is an American demand.”"

"Bellingcat & MI6 Involved in Ukrainian FAILED Plot to BRIBE Russian Pilots - Inside Russia Report" (iEarlGrey).  Considering the plausibility of the Bellingcat story.

"How Mario Draghi Broke Italy" (Fazi):

"As I’ve argued before, Mario Draghi is the bodily incarnation of “neoliberalism”. Neither is it surprising that those policies haven’t delivered, given that the EU’s neoliberal logic, based upon privatisation, fiscal austerity and wage compression — which Draghi has played a crucial role in implementing since the early Nineties — is the main reason Italy is in such a mess to begin with. Draghi also further strengthened the EU’s stranglehold over the Italian economy by relentlessly peddling the narrative that Italy desperately needed the European Covid recovery funds to kickstart its economy, and that in order to access those funds it needed to diligently implement the reforms demanded by Brussels.

Yet in macroeconomic terms, the funds in question are a pittance, and nowhere close to what would be needed to have a meaningful impact on Italy’s economy. But they come with very strict conditionalities. This is ultimately what the EU’s Next Generation EU “recovery fund” is all about: increasing Brussels’s control over the budgetary policies of member states and strengthening the EU’s regime of technocratic and authoritarian control. And who better than Draghi could be trusted with locking such measures in place? As he himself noted, the “reform path” laid down by his government meant that “we have created the conditions for the [EU recovery] work to continue, regardless of who is [in government]” — thus ensuring that future governments wouldn’t stray from the path of righteousness.

Draghi, however, doesn’t just leave behind him a scorched economy but also a deeply fractured and divided society. He is the man responsible for devising the most punitive, discriminatory and segregational mass vaccination policies in the West, which not only excluded millions of unvaccinated people — including children — from social life, by extending vaccine passports to practically all public spaces, but also restricted many people from working. He also helped make the unvaccinated the target of institutionally sanctioned hate speech, such as when he infamously claimed: “You don’t get vaccinated, you get sick, you die. Or you kill.”

All this might offer an indication of why a recent poll showed that 50% of Italians weren’t happy with the government’s work."


"With the launch of its recent Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), the ECB has provided itself with a tool that technically allows it to do “whatever it takes” to close euro spreads, thus potentially averting future financial crises. Such intervention, however, is conditional on compliance with the EU’s fiscal framework and with the “reforms” outlined in each country’s “recovery fund” plans — already locked in place by Draghi. But these will do nothing to end the unfolding social and economic crisis; in fact, they are certain to worsen it. In other words, the next Italian government, if it wants to stay financially afloat, will have little choice but to follow the economic diktats of the EU — or else. In such a context, how long before the last remnants of democratic legitimacy in countries such as Italy break down? And what then?

Ultimately, the next euro crisis is much more likely to break out on the streets of Europe than on financial markets.

"Losing Battle for the Vuhlehirska Power Plant, Ukraine Counterattacks in Kherson Region" (South Front).

Yep!:  "150 Days of War and Deceit" (Duff):

"Those few that risk naming names and point fingers at those really guilty see a historical pattern. Ukraine is, in actuality, made up largely of the ancient Jewish kingdom of Khazaria. In fact, the vast majority of Jews in Israel and around the world have no Semitic genes but are rather of the Indo-Turkish Khazarian peoples.

That kingdom was established in the 8th Century, and it is Khazarians, fleeing the Mongols and Huns, which made up the entirety of the Jewish population of Europe.

There was absolutely no immigration from Judea and Samaria to Europe, certainly not to Germany, Poland or Hungary, not before 1500 and not afterward as well.

There are no “Ashkanazi.” That’s just another fairy tale.

That said, a valid explanation of what we are seeing and fighting over today is the Zionist expression of Upper and Lower Khazaria, meaning Ukraine and Israel.

But rather than looking at these are a “restoration” of a Turkish people who chose the Jewish religion, something far darker is at hand.

What we have is “ground zero” for centuries old organized crime, all powerful, its hands in every cookie jar, its tentacles reaching every capitol.

Media disinformation regarding the root cause still dominates. Even alleged “pro-Russian” pundits damn Ukraine but fail to touch on those involved behind the scenes.

This “blindness” is pervasive and those who charm and entertain do so without touching on meaningful truth. Those who violate this cardinal rule get the bone saw or worse, if worse exists.

After 150 days of the current conflict in Ukraine, a detailed analysis of the players has made one thing clear, there would be no war, no insane expansion of NATO to the gates of Moscow without a “full court press” by Israel and its powerful lobby in the US.

Thus, when looking at who to blame, the “usual suspects,” big oil, the banks or even the shadowy “military-industrial complex” gets the nod from the tame and controlled.

The truth? The mob and their armies of hedge fund managers trained by Israeli intelligence run the defense giants, they run the tech giants, they run the press and their very special “uncles” control the world’s currencies.

Time and time again, when tracing back not just fabricated atrocities but the full-blown cooperation between Western media and Ukraine’s intelligence services, there is always one result.

The media war on Russia is run from Israel.

Leading the way are traditional lie machines long experienced at defending an apartheid state and damning the victims such as Newsweek, the New York Times, the BBC, the Guardian, the Daily Beast, CNN and the worldwide Mossad run Murdoch/Greenbaum/Maxwell organization.

Behind them, AIPAC uses its immense political muscle, backed by the MEGA billionaires to dominate America’s corrupt political fundraising game, long exposed by Robert David Steele, CIA whistleblower.

They funded the Maidan coup in 2014 and the Trump coup attempt in 2021. The control America’s courts and they do the same in Great Britain and across the EU.

Congress, the Pentagon and the White House are simply “middle management” in their efforts to enforce a chaotic world order of poverty and oppression.

They rule Britain through Freemasonry and a long history of blackmail that was only touched on before the massive coverup of the “News of the World” Murdoch scandal exposed Britain as a Zionist client state."


"The End of Cheap Russian Gas: Turning the Lights Out in Europe" (Smith):

"Despite the aggressive Western sanctions, including seizing hundreds of billions of central bank assets, seizing Gazprom infrastructure, and explicitly trying to break the Russian banking system and even breaking up Russia itself, Russia has been very restrained as far as counter-measures are concerned. So after loudly saying that the EU wants nothing to do with Russian energy or Russian pipelines, the EU should hardly be upset if Russia is tried of laboring not to give them what they asked for, an economic divorce. The problem is Europe is now upset that it’s getting what it acted like it wanted."

The massive underlying problem is that the death-cult Greens are getting exactly what they want, the destruction of Europe. Note that the Nazi's fucking up of the Siemens paperwork is just her final attempt at monkeywrenching Russia.

"How A Russian Gas Freeze Would Curtail European GDPs" (Durden).

"David Stockman On The All-Out Commitment To Destroy Fossil Fuels... Will It Succeed?".

"EP 1.5 New World Econ "Geopolitics of energy" + Q&A Panel" (Mazarin Italian' Geopolitics).  With a bit of Italian politics.  

"Does Economic Pain Mean NATO And The West Cut Ukraine Loose?" (Davis).  This guy is pretty good, but this is just obvious nonsense:

"The reality is that Russian conventional forces pose little credible threat to NATO countries. Even the Baltics, which are more militarily vulnerable than any other NATO member, have little to fear from a Russian army that has shown severe limitations in projecting power – and has now lost significant capacity owing to combat losses from the first five months of war."

Russia could roll over the Baltics in a couple days, and nobody in Europe would dare lift a finger to do anything about it, for fear of being next.  The Baltics are much, much, much less defended than is Ukraine. 

Goldilocks and the Bear

"Lavrov explains Odessa. Ursula’s new gas plan, Nigeria to the rescue. Boris will return. Update 2" (Christoforou).  The Europeans are just like Goldilocks, deciding they want exactly the right amount of gas from Russia (not too hot, not too cold, but just right), lower than Russia would like to sell until the pain causes Russia to change its behavior, but if Russia supplies anything less than what the Europeans deem the right amount, Russia is a monster.  Europeans alone get to decide how much gas arrives.  Then they fall asleep until the Bear comes home.

"Ukraine Kherson Attack Routed, Zelensky Political Position At Risk, China Gives US Warning on Taiwan" (Mercouris).  Giving good advice to Washington is a complete waste of time, as the (((donors))) are getting exactly what they want.

"“Spotlight” Interview: Update on the Week in Ukraine" (McGovern).

"Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 153".

Colonel Cassad via Niqnaq.

"Battle for Vuhlehirska Power Plant: Remaining Ukrainian Forces Are Surrounded" (South Front).  If you follow the logic of Military Summary in yesterday's video, this is a big domino to fall which may lead to a cascading series of Russian victories.

"Some Explanations Re: The Saker." (Martyanov):

"I repeat, I do feel for Germans, but let me disclose one secret--one of my acquaintances, a man of extraordinary background and a very notable figure, who is German, had to bitterly admit, during one of our many conversations, that until Germany collapse economically and population as a whole will feel the brunt of this collapse, no political changes are possible. But Germany does need this change desperately because at issue is, actually, a survival of Germans as people. Yes, this is how serious this all is."

It is starting to look like all of the Western nations have to suffer greatly before the revolutionary conditions arrive and people take out the trash.  We're just so weak and coddled and flabby that we can't muster the strength to save ourselves. 

"Bellingcat Denies Officials' Responsible For Failed Ukrainian Plot - Zelenski Fires Said Officials" (Moon of Alabama).  I have respect for these Ukrainians.  Goofy, hopeless plans or not, they have their backs against the wall, and are thinking outside the box.  Besides embarrassment, there was no downside to this plan, so why not?  It is far better than Ze's reckless PR battlefield stunts, which just result in a pile of dead Ukrainians.

More slight evidence of partial sanity in Washington:  "US Navy Cancels Participation In "Essential" Annual Black Sea Drills, Citing Ukraine War" (Durden).

"Day 150 of the Russo-Ukrainian War" (Kay):

"While Krasnopals have destroyed hundreds of military vehicles, they too are not this war’s principal widow-maker. That honor belongs to old-school 152-mm shells coupled with humble Orlan-10 drones.

Perhaps the most basic of the 30 Russian-made drones, the Orlan-10 uses a gasoline-fueled piston engine to power a single-propeller plane with a 2-meter wingspan. Orlan-10s rely on rubber-band powered catapults for launch and parachutes to land. Orlan-10s carry retail, made-in-the-USA GPS systems and off-the-shelf Canon cameras. Nevertheless, Orlan-10s remain airborne for 16 hours at 5-kilometer altitudes whilst signaling real-time data to communication hubs 600 kilometers away.

Typical front-line "battles" consist of Orlan-10s beaming video of Ukrainian troops back to Russian communication hubs which then radio coordinates to batteries of four MSTA howitzers. The MSTAs then rumble into firing positions up to 25 kilometers from the spotted Ukrainians. Within one minute the MSTAs simultaneously fire 6 rounds each before driving off to elude counter-artillery. Each round carries a 45-kilogram shrapnel, or incendiary, bomb. The Russian Information Agency recently recounted a day wherein 157 such "battles" took place. The Russians experienced zero casualties."

"Our Steel Birds: Opportunities & Prospects of Unmanned Groups" (Vladimirov). 

Monday, July 25, 2022

The person who should rule the whole world, Putin

"Lysychansk People Speak - Uncensored Reportage!! LNR - Donbass -" (Phillips).  The little girl is amazing!

There's pressure mounting

"Experts?" (Martyanov). 

"The Dark Scenario: Ukraine’s Military Can’t Beat Russia And Collapses" (Davis):

"Ukraine War Scenario Three (Collapse of Ukrainian Army & Total Russian Victory)

Few in the West have considered this potential outcome, mainly because it is too unpalatable and painful to contemplate. Yet the conditions on the ground are such that it is not an unrealistic possibility."


"Russia’s most significant accomplishment in this phase of operations won’t be the physical capture of territory as much as it will be the decimation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a coherent entity. Ukraine has been suffering upwards of 1,000 total casualties per day in the Donbas since mid-April, after losing thousands of their best fighters in the battle for Mariupol. Most of these losses have been to their most experienced and toughest fighters.

Replacements that have continued to come in often do not have even the most rudimentary of training; one study by the Modern War Institute estimated that “just 20 percent (of the Ukrainian personnel in replacement units sent to the front) had even fired a weapon before heading to combat.” As more of the original contingent of trained personnel are killed or wounded, the remaining force of inexperience and insufficiently trained troops will be at increased risk of collapse.

The reason: success or failure in modern combat rests not just on having trained individual soldiers and proper volumes of the right kit, but on having experienced and well-trained units. I cannot overstate the harm done to the Ukrainian Army in the loss of its troops – especially the tactical leaders at platoon, company, and battalion levels – since the war started last February, nor on the harm this loss has done to Ukraine’s ability to mount a credible counter-offensive threat. While it’s not optimal for replacements to be taught basic combat skills at the front, those that survive can become quite capable.

But training a military organization at company or battalion level to fight as a team requires considerable training, over months, and even that must start with experiences sergeants, lieutenants, and captains. You can’t “create” experienced leaders, they have to be grown over time, and there is no shortcut for creating them. Thus, the more Ukraine loses their experience troops in leadership positions, the less capable their overall force will be, no mater how many BTGs they eventually fill with new personnel."


"An unemotional assessment of this war would lead to the conclusion that the Ukrainian political leadership should seek the best-negotiated settlement it could get now, while it still has complete control of Kharkiv, Odesa, and most of Donetsk Oblast – and before another significant city is turned to rubble and tens of thousands more of its citizens killed or wounded. But war is not an unemotional endeavor, and Zelensky has to make choices that are anguishing and very much filled with emotion." 


The obvious best choice

The obvious best choice: 

Power plant

"Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 25.07.2022" (Military Summary).  That power plant finally fell to the Russians in the way characteristic of the Ukrainians, an unauthorized retreat due to the complete lack of proper weapons or support for the soldiers on the front lines. 

Needless death and misery

"China warns Biden WH, military action on the table if Pelosi visits Taiwan" (The Duran). 

"China warns White House, Pelosi stirring up trouble. EU passport for Russian military jet. Update 1" (Christoforou).

Bridge repair:  "[ Mykolaiv Front ] Antonovskiy "Kherson" Bridge repaired & a backup Tampon crossing built beside it!" (Defense Politics Asia).

"Ukraine War Update [25 July] - Ukrainians leave Novoluhanske & cross Inhulets river at Andriivka" (Military Lab).  Wait, pro-Ukrainian Chechens?

"Open thread for today" (The Saker).

"Russia says it wants to end Ukraine’s `unacceptable regime’" (Blann).  Lavrov seems to be saying a lot while touring Africa.

I assume this is a warning from the US to Ze to try to make it a bit less obvious!:  "Corruption concerns involving Ukraine are revived as the war with Russia drags on".

"Ukraine Government issues blacklist of ‘Russian propagandists’" (McRedmond).  "Ukraine Moves To Criminalize Russian Passport Application" (Durden).

I think this was announced in April!:

"US comments on designating Russia ‘terrorism sponsor’".  From easily the biggest state sponsor of terrorism in world history.

"Rickards: Needless Death And Misery".

The toddler voting block

"Some Implications of the UN’s Ukraine Grain and Russia Fertilizer/Food Agreements" (Smith).  I don't think the Russians would have even contemplated using Iranian drones before the SMO started, but now it is a friendly diplomatic nod to Iran and its technological expertise, plus a signal that Russia is firmly on the side of, and integrated with, the Resistance.  Iran and Russia have exactly the same (((problem))).

The Russian energy train has left and the Europeans are stuck in the station:

The plentiful, reliable, relatively clean and cheap energy made Europeans the most wealthy people in the world, and its lack will plunge them into penury.  European politicians chose this. 

"Putin Turns The Screws: Gazprom Unexpectedly Halts Another Nord Stream Turbine Cutting Flows In Half; European Gas Prices Soar" (Durden).  I hope they don't have to send the part to Canada to be fixed!  Is there anything, anything at all, that might lead Scholz to accept Putin's kind offer to open Nord Stream 2?

Two-year-olds have more sense than the German Green Party (to be fair, she is only officially advocating for teenagers to vote, as opposed to her crazy personal opinion): 

I'm afraid if you asked Germans for a do-over on their electoral choices, they would choose exactly the same 'leaders'. Of course, as always happens in these situations, once the shit hits the fan we will see a massive Europe-wide shift to the far right, even ultra-right.

"Another Crazy Plot By Ukraine's Secret Service Just Blew Up - Flimsy Excuses Follow" (Moon of Alabama).  Are Bellingcat guys now actively involved in conspiracies, rather than just making them up as 'journalists'?  Ukraine is famous for its 'hot' women, so I guess they have found a way to weaponize them.

Mass starvation

"Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 152".

"Ukraine Fired USA supplied Ammunition On Bridge To Kherson & Nikolaiv / Odessa Front" and "Ukraine War: Mentally Challenged Man Tortured Near Lysychansk" (Lancaster).

"Italy - "Russia's Trojan horse". West Is "Hiding The Truth". Yellen "This Is Not A Recession..."" (iEarlGrey).

"MOATS Ep 166 with George Galloway".  Lira is on from 30:50 (although Galloway's opening rant is also worthwhile).

Colonel Cassad via Niqnaq.

"It Is Ukraine, Not Russia, Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel in Search of Replacement Troops" (Johnson).

It is funny how NATO set up this wonderful model army, but didn't actually set it up with usable logistics:  "Logistical nightmares for the Ukrainian army" (Milacic).  It is almost as if this army was never intended to win.

The Russian government is running with Putin's traditional socialist formulation, a formulation which has found an audience across the non-West:

There was a point when we could barely tolerate the silliness and incompetence and psychological problems of our 'leaders', but it has now gone well beyond dangerous into an emergency situation:

Sunday, July 24, 2022

He doesn't care

I don't think there has ever been a man who hates Canada more than Blackface Trudeau.  All he cares about is the Cult of Schwab and making Bill Gates as rich as possible.

Sociopathic and extremely dangerous

"MBS calls Putin. Kremlin checkmates EU and US on grain exports, energy and sanctions" (The Duran).

"As Russia Prepares for Donbass Offensive Russia Records Steady Price Falls, Rebounding Economy" (Mercouris).

"Ray McGovern: Media Miss Major Moves on Russia-Ukraine".

"Beware the Lucrative Tilt  With Windmills in Ukraine" (McGovern).  Solid comment by Hunkins.

We're rapidly approaching pitchforks and torches time in Canada as the entire West 'leadership' class goes stark raving mad:

"Why Get Rid of Farmers Amid Rising Food Insecurity?" (Constitutional Nobody). 

Added:  Due to the stark outright treason of the goddamn Traitor Singh, the Canadian electoral system is broken, and it seems Canadians can no longer afford to wait for the next election to take out the trash:

Color revolution him during the summer of love

Look who is back!:  "Ukraine - Russia War Crimes In Lysychansk Exposed (Special Report)" (Lancaster). 

"Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 24.07.2022" (Military Summary).  16 new local Russian battalions with Iranian drones ready in September-October after training?!

The Milley coup (this sounds more important than it may seem):

"What is Adam Schiff Hiding?" (Kelly). 

"AIPAC's horrendous role in this year's Democratic primaries" (Reich!).  "Aipac hails Democrat’s defeat for not being sufficiently pro-Israel" (McGreal).  Of course, AIPAC pushes the money into American politics to politically support the (((neocons))).

More surprises were in store

"Roundtable #4: Christoforou, Escobar, iEarlGrey" (Lira).

Slicker, quicker war coverage:  "Ukraine War Update [24 July] - Ukrainians target more bridges, Russians stop encirclement attempt" (Military Lab).

"In The News." (Martyanov).

"Five months into the Special Military Operation – a summary" (The Saker, who is back).


"The Discontinuity" (Dreizin).

70.  What, not 90?

"Sinking Germany" (D'Eramo).  The stats make the decision of Germany to turn away from Russia-China and embrace subservience to the US even more baffling.

"How the US is Killing its Principal Competitor – the EU" (Danilov).

A thread (the excepts are fun): 

"Biden Quoting Viet Poetry, No More Oil and It's Good to Eat Beef" (Dinh). 

"Guantanamo detainee cleared for release after 20 years of detention without trial" (Kaufman). 

"The Shortest History of European Surface Naval Warfare Ever Written" (Smith).

"Empire Burlesque" (Bessner):

"There are also more fundamental, even ontological, problems with the liberal internationalist approach. Liberal internationalism is a product of the fin de siècle, when Progressive thinkers, activists, and policymakers across the political spectrum believed that rationality could achieve mastery over human affairs. But the dream proved to be just that. No nation, no matter how powerful, has the capacity to control international relations—an arena defined by radical uncertainty—in the ways that Woodrow Wilson and other Progressives hoped. The world is not a chessboard.

Furthermore, liberal internationalists’ democracy-first strategy assumes a Manichaean model of geopolitics that is both inconsistent and counterproductive. For all their crowing about democracy, liberal internationalists have been just fine collaborating with dictatorships, from Saudi Arabia to Egypt, when it has served perceived U.S. interests. This will probably remain true, making any kind of democracy-first strategy a primarily discursive one. Nonetheless, discursively centering democracy could have drastic repercussions. Dividing the world into “good” democracies and “bad” authoritarian regimes narrows the space for engagement with many countries not currently aligned with the United States. Decision-makers who view autocracies as inevitable opponents are less likely to take their interests seriously and may even misread their intentions. This happened repeatedly in the Fifties and Sixties, when U.S. officials insisted that the very nature of the Soviet system made it impossible to reach détente. In fact, détente was only achieved in the Seventies, after decision-makers concluded that the Soviet Union was best treated as a normal nation with normal interests, regardless of its political structure. Once Americans adopted this approach, it became clear that the Soviets, like them, preferred superpower stability to nuclear war.

Because it’s difficult to know precisely what a government like China’s is up to, liberal internationalists tend to flatten the complexities that shape its behavior, and assume that China will expand to the limits of its power. This idea owes much to the classical realist school of foreign policy, which, following the émigré political scientist Hans Morgenthau, maintains that nations have an animus dominandi, a will to dominate. (The United States, unsurprisingly, is assumed to act according to more noble motivations.) For this reason, some liberal internationalists claim, China will fill any power vacuum it can.

But is this an accurate description of China—or indeed, of any modern nation? Classical realism was born of the traumas of the Thirties, when two great powers, Nazi Germany and imperial Japan, considered the conquest of foreign territory vital to their futures. The experience of German and Japanese expansion profoundly shaped the work of midcentury thinkers like Morgenthau, who insisted that the search for lebensraum reflected more general laws of international relations.

Unfortunately for those liberal internationalists indebted to classical realism, states make the decisions they do for many reasons, from regime type (is a nation a democracy or an autocracy?) to individual psychology (is a particular leader mentally well?) to culture (what behavior does a given nation valorize?). When it comes to trying to explain why China—or Russia, or Iran, or North Korea—acts as it does, it’s not particularly useful to ignore everything that makes the country unique in favor of emphasizing immutable factors.

The historicist approach of restrainers is a far better way to analyze international relations. Restrainers focus on what China has done, and not what it might do; for them, China is a state that exists in the world, with its own interests and concerns, not an abstraction embodying transhistorical laws (which themselves reflect American anxieties).

And when examining what China has done, the evidence is clear: while the nation obviously wants to be a major power in East Asia, and while it hopes to one day conquer Taiwan, there’s little to suggest that, in the short term at least, it aims to replace the United States as the regional, let alone global, hegemon. Neither China’s increased military budget (which pales in comparison to the United States’ $800 billion) nor its foreign development aid (which is not linked to a recipient country’s politics) indicates that it desires domination. In fact, Chinese leaders, who tolerate the presence of tens of thousands of troops stationed near their borders, appear willing to allow the United States to remain a major player in Asia, something Americans would never countenance in the Western Hemisphere.

Ironically, liberal internationalists are imposing their own goals for hegemony onto China. Their commitment to armed primacy—a commitment that has led to war after war—threatens to increase tensions with a country that Americans must cooperate with to solve the real problems of the twenty-first century: climate change, pandemics, and inequality. When compared with these existential threats, the liberal internationalist obsession with primacy is a relic of a bygone era. For the sake of the world, we must move beyond it."