Thursday, August 18, 2022

Saboteurs and terrorists

"Russia Pressures Ukraine on All Fronts. West Increasingly Pessimistic on Kiev's Prospects" (Mercouris). 

"Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 18.08.2022" (Military Summary).

"Ukraine War [18 August] - Erdogan supports a ceasefire - Russia recaptures Bilohirka? (Kherson)" (Military Lab.).

"Analysing the frontline 18-08 (Short Stream) [Ukriane war map analysis]" (Weeb Union).

"Sabotage, terrorist and other diversionary attacks are a real risk for Russia" (The Saker):

"This is a major problem for Russia and, worse, this is a problem which will not go away anytime soon.

The only thing Russians can do is to 1) prepare for a very long counter-intelligence and counter-diversionary operations lasting many years and 2) accept the reality of war for what it is and not freak out the next time the Ukronazis blow up something, be it a ship, a train, an aircraft, a bridge or any other target in the LDNR or Russia.

The one good news the Russians also need to keep in mind is that most of such diversionary/terrorist attacks are still fundamentally part of PSYOPs and are mostly designed for PR effect.  In terms of their actual impact on Russian military capabilities, it is close to zero,  just like the Israeli strikes in Syria have made exactly *zero* difference on the ground in Syria.  To really affect military operations you need to have a large, viable and sophisticated partisan/”stay behind” force, which the Ukrainians do not have, not by a long margin.  Also, to really affect military operations, such diversionary tactics need to be carefully coordinated with “regular” friendly military forces (like the Soviet partisans during WWII who closely worked with the Soviet armed forces).

So yes, this is a problem, a very unpleasant one, one which will be hard to deal with, but not one which will affect Russian military operations.  Even if the Ukronazis blow up both the Chernobyl AND Zaporozhiie NPs, this will not significantly affect the SMO or even the war between Russia and the united West.  The entire Russian military is trained, and well trained, to operate in a hostile nuclear, chemical or bacteriological environment.  As for Russian logistics, they are extremely sophisticated and highly redundant, so even if the Ukronazis blow up one node of the resupply network, it will be quickly fixed and/or easily replaced or bypassed.

That being said, I would personally recommend that we all mentally prepare for what is almost certainly about to happen in the not too distant future.  If we understand what such operation can and cannot achieve we will see them in a sober, pragmatic way, and not cave in to the hysterics (by many sides, including the Russian 6th column) which will inevitable follow any such attack."

Why there is less Greenwald than the usual generous portion:  "Note to Readers".

This could be wonderful, as Senators get no worse than Johnson:  "Marquette poll shows Mandela Barnes with 7-point lead over U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson; Gov. Tony Evers in close race with GOP's Tim Michels" (Glauber).

"Fight ramps up to prevent Canadian companies’ abuses abroad" (Kestler-D'Amours).  You ever wonder why Canada, with its formerly stellar reputation as a 'good guy' country, is allowed to host all those mega-mining companies?  As Canada's reputation crumbles, thanks in large part to Blackface Trudeau, why would these criminal mining companies want to hide themselves behind the Canadian flag?  It has become embarrassing.

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